Mahnaz Rabiee; Bijan Bid Abad
Volume 9, Issue 32 , April 2009, , Pages 67-96
Abstract
In this paper, the relationship between exchange rate and interest rate is re-examined through a theoretical expansion and reformulating of the quantitative theory of money. Fisher's theory is expanded to include both internal and external monetary sectors to be considered simultaneously. A framework ...
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In this paper, the relationship between exchange rate and interest rate is re-examined through a theoretical expansion and reformulating of the quantitative theory of money. Fisher's theory is expanded to include both internal and external monetary sectors to be considered simultaneously. A framework for studying the relationship between interest and exchange rate is offered by relating export, import and capital account, net domestic and foreign assets of banking system in a generalized framework of quantitative theory of money and using the theories of interest rate parity and monetary approach to balance of payments. This paper concludes that there is a negative relationship between interest rate and exchange rate, ceteris paribus.
A significant contribution in this paper is the adaptation of transaction value to aggregate supply concepts using United Nations System of National Accounts (1993). This clarification actually removes the vogues of critical issues of the transaction value in macroeconomic analysis.
The proposed theoretical framework is tested for Iran's data. It is concluded that there is a negative relationship between exchange rate and interest rate again.
Bijan Bid Abad; Kambiz Peykarjoo
Volume 7, Issue 27 , January 2008, , Pages 83-117
Abstract
This study recognizes and analyzes the basic main factors influencing demand and supply of petroleum; also in addition, with the use of analysis of supply surplus impact on global petroleum market, designs a model for simulation and prediction of oil price.
In this model, through the use of modification ...
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This study recognizes and analyzes the basic main factors influencing demand and supply of petroleum; also in addition, with the use of analysis of supply surplus impact on global petroleum market, designs a model for simulation and prediction of oil price.
In this model, through the use of modification method of Dynamic Disequilibrium Adjustment Model (DDAM), natural gas price variables, global gross domestic product (GDP),GDP of oil producing countries, production capacity of petroleum, oil supply surplus in market and global oil price, demand and supply of petroleum are being presented. The behaviour of natural gas market are transferred meaningfully to theoil market and cause changes in oil price.
In the dynamic simulations of model, the impacts of various shocks on supply and demand of oil prices are investigated and it will be predicted for the years 2008 till 2010. So, the designed model indicates that is has
proved to have the ability to analyze political shocks and to predict oil prices and can be used in policy making and oil price prediction too.
As a result, the model prediction shows that in the years 2008-2010 the oil price will partly go downward, frontier 100$, however this reduction will not reach to the price fall in the 1990 decade.
